Friday 28th July 2017
Very much a day to forget for the blog yesterday, but more so for the trainer of the 3 point bet Zumran. Charlie Mcbride was involved in an absolute farce at Yarmouth where the winner of the 2 year old race at 50/1, Mandarin Princess, was later found out to be her three year old stable mate Millie's Kiss. I sincerely hope that punters who lost out due to this error can resolve any issues, although in fairness plenty of bookmakers have decided to pay out on both the first and second as a goodwill gesture. As for our bet, Zumran, he was a late drifter and already looked beat two furlongs out.
Annoyingly one I left out yesterday, but tweeted about -May Girl went and won at 7/1. Bit of a lesson there to take a chance on unproven ground, even if it means lowering stakes or ensuring you get a big enough price. Not been a great start to the week but hopefully we can turn things around with Friday's bets.
16:05 Thirsk - ORIENTAL LILLY 2/1
2 Points Win
Oriental Lilly ran a great race when losing out by just a neck on her handicap debut at Haydock last time out, she was closing all the way to the line that day whilst not having had the clearest run and looks sure to appreciate the extra furlong. She is officially 2lb well in at the weights as she is due to go up to the mark of 65 in the future. The chief threat could be Kodicat as she won in handicap company a few starts back but is 4lb higher now.
16:35 Thirsk - AIMEZ LA VIE 10/1
1 Point Each-Way
If you can forgive Aimez La Vie her last run, she comes into this with some great form in the book. Prior to that no-show at Sailsbury she beat Cheerfilly in a maiden, a horse which has since gone on to win two out of her last three starts and bids for the hatrick under a penalty at Newbury I write this on Thursday evening and is due to go up to an offical rating of 85. However, it is also important to note that Cheerfilly improved for the addition of cheekpieces which were not present when the two met. There is, however another form line which stands out, in the start prior to losing her maiden tag she finished second to Ghadaayer, who has since boosted the form by finishing second by a head and then winning a Newmarket handicap - earning an official rating of 84. Thus, condsidering Amiez La Vie comes into this off a mark of 75, theres no reason to think this mark isn't workable if she bounces back to form, so she looks some each-way value here.
17:50 Chepstow - DOUBLE REFLECTION 9/1
1 Point Each-Way
This filly looked very green when finishing fourth behind a 2/5 fav at Hamilton. She missed the break and had to be pushed along from an early stage but was still not out of contention there just over a furlong out, but she could only keep on at one pace. She should improve for that experience and the step up in trip, and being a half sister to Quiet Reflection, she should appreciate the cut in the ground. Also worth noting that from my time listening to William Hill Racing Radio, statman and shrewd judge Andrew Mount has mentioned a few times that Karl Burke has a great record with two year olds on their second start.
Annoyingly one I left out yesterday, but tweeted about -May Girl went and won at 7/1. Bit of a lesson there to take a chance on unproven ground, even if it means lowering stakes or ensuring you get a big enough price. Not been a great start to the week but hopefully we can turn things around with Friday's bets.
16:05 Thirsk - ORIENTAL LILLY 2/1
2 Points Win
Oriental Lilly ran a great race when losing out by just a neck on her handicap debut at Haydock last time out, she was closing all the way to the line that day whilst not having had the clearest run and looks sure to appreciate the extra furlong. She is officially 2lb well in at the weights as she is due to go up to the mark of 65 in the future. The chief threat could be Kodicat as she won in handicap company a few starts back but is 4lb higher now.
16:35 Thirsk - AIMEZ LA VIE 10/1
1 Point Each-Way
If you can forgive Aimez La Vie her last run, she comes into this with some great form in the book. Prior to that no-show at Sailsbury she beat Cheerfilly in a maiden, a horse which has since gone on to win two out of her last three starts and bids for the hatrick under a penalty at Newbury I write this on Thursday evening and is due to go up to an offical rating of 85. However, it is also important to note that Cheerfilly improved for the addition of cheekpieces which were not present when the two met. There is, however another form line which stands out, in the start prior to losing her maiden tag she finished second to Ghadaayer, who has since boosted the form by finishing second by a head and then winning a Newmarket handicap - earning an official rating of 84. Thus, condsidering Amiez La Vie comes into this off a mark of 75, theres no reason to think this mark isn't workable if she bounces back to form, so she looks some each-way value here.
17:50 Chepstow - DOUBLE REFLECTION 9/1
1 Point Each-Way
This filly looked very green when finishing fourth behind a 2/5 fav at Hamilton. She missed the break and had to be pushed along from an early stage but was still not out of contention there just over a furlong out, but she could only keep on at one pace. She should improve for that experience and the step up in trip, and being a half sister to Quiet Reflection, she should appreciate the cut in the ground. Also worth noting that from my time listening to William Hill Racing Radio, statman and shrewd judge Andrew Mount has mentioned a few times that Karl Burke has a great record with two year olds on their second start.
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