Wednesday 26th July 2017

No luck yesterday, Incus finishing second means it wasn't a complete disaster but he was far too keen in the early stages of the race. The winner of that race was hard to find but couldn't have done it any easier and looks one to keep on the right side of next time out.


14:40 Bath - PICKET LINE 12/1

0.5 Points Each-Way

 This is a competitive handicap here and while Debonaire David bids for a hatrick, he looks opposable despite his progressive looking profile, as his two wins came on the all weather surfaces at Wolverhampton and Lingfield - while the current going is good, the forecast rain looks likely to change that. Burauq also comes into this in winning form and did it readily over course and distance last time but he is inconsistent and up 5lb today. The one I like is Picket Line, who looked unlucky not to finish closer on the all weather at Kempton last time, after missing the break and being forced wide into the straight, he stayed on strongly to finish a never nearer three and a half length 6th.  Prior to that he finished last of 9 at Windsor in class 4 company. However before that he had finished 4th at Chepstow off a mark of 74, he's now back down to a mark of 71 - last time he ran off this mark he won at Windsor. His recent fourth at Chepstow came on softer going so forecast rain shouldn't pose a problem. Its a competitive enough race though so just a small punt.



15:40 Bath - SURE TO EXPLORE 3/1

 2 Points Win

 I put this one up on Friday but she was declared a non runner, but she remains a strong fancy for reasons stated on Friday. She never got involved on her debut but took a big step forward on her second start at Chepstow winning by half a length from So Sleek, who came out on Thursday and franked the form when winning at Lingfield. The current favourite as I write this, is Pacharana, who's most recent win means she is now 6 from 11 in handicap company. However, all of those successes have come in class 4 or below and she has looked out of her depth in her couple of starts in class 3 company. She's certainly worth another chance in this grade but I think she may struggle to give the weight to Sure to Explore. Really Super has started favourite in her last two starts, but she was beaten in both - which were class 5. Silver Link has looked difficult to win with and was beaten at odds on last time out.

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