Saturday 21st October 2017
Ascot British Champions Day Preview
13:25 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup
Order Of St George will be a short price for this for a second year in a row, but he disappointed last year and has charted a pretty similar path so I’m willing to look for something at a bigger price. Having said that, I expect him to turn the tables with his Royal Ascot conqueror, Big Orange, given the softening ground conditions. The one I like is one of the young guns, Stradivarius, he has progressed well throughout this campaign and ran his biggest race to date when third in the St Leger. There was some cut in the ground that day but it is likely to be softer tomorrow so the ground remains a question mark but he is a horse still clearly progressing and may give the favourite most to think about. At a much bigger price, Sheikhzayedroad has to be of interest having won this last year and the softening conditions likely to play to his strengths.
14:00 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes
This race is many people’s race of the day and it is easy to see why, with one of the most exciting horses of the season Harry Angel looking to avenge his Royal Ascot defeat at the hands of Caravaggio. Caravaggio has disappointed since that win but took a step back in the right direction last time at the Curragh. On the other hand, Clive Cox’s colt has since won the July cup and Haydock Sprint cup is emphatic style and is subsequently a short price and deservedly so. Underfoot conditions will be fine but the main concern for him will be the forecast strong headwind, which may blunt his prominent racing style. Librisa Breeze has a fair bit to find on official figures but the blustery conditions will suit him, he will come fast and late and if the gaps appear he could run on into the places. Quiet Reflection ran well at the Curragh after a break last time and has to be feared if back to her best.
14:40 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
The rain this week will have delighted connections of Bateel, who will relish the testing conditions and is the highest rated on official figures. Journey beat the French raider in this contest last year but it is likely the softer conditions will at least close the gap, if not reverse that form. Coronet comes here off a big run in the St Leger where she was probably outstayed so the drop back in trip will suit, she looks the pick of the three year olds, with Horseplay another one who will appreciate the testing going.
15:15 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Ribchester has cemented his title of top European miler this season in fairly decisive fashion, with the only minor blip coming in grueling conditions at Goodwood. He is likely to prove tough to beat but Beat The Bank has the most progressive looking profile in the line-up and made light work of winning a group 2 last time, he is a certain player if handling the step up in class. Another unexposed type, Al Wukair, could be worth chancing. He has only ran twice since running a very eye-catching race in the 2000 Guineas behind Churchill where he rattled home after coming from way back. His most recent performance was his best yet on RPR's and that came on soft ground so we may not have seen the best of him yet. Lancaster Bomber will likely run his usual solid race and it would be no surprise to see him place.
15:50 Qipco Champion Stakes
This is the big one, and as I write this Cracksman is a short priced favourite who certainly looks worth taking on. The son of frankel looks to often hit a flat spot in his races and sometimes takes a while to get going so the drop back in trip is a concern. Brametot ran an absolute cracker in the Arc De Triomphe and was unlucky not to finish closer to Enable. He had the speed to win a group one over a mile so the drop back to 1m2f isn't a concern and provided that Arc run hasn't taken too much out of him he looks to have a good each-way chance. Barney Roy will likely show better than at York where he did too much early on and Cliffs Of Moher may be one at a bigger price to get competitive.
16:30 Balmoral Handicap
This is the big puzzle of the day so I'll keep it brief but there's two I like in here. The first of which is The Grape Escape, younger horses have had a good record in this race in recent years and this three year old gets into this 2lb well in under a penalty. He has won convincingly the last twice, is still progressing and will appreciate the cut in the ground, so he may well be able to take this step up in class in his stride. At a slightly bigger price, Speculative Bid shaped well behind Lord Glitters last time when returning from a long absence and the booking of Jim Crowley in the saddle is certainly interesting. He ran on well late in that contest so the extra furlong here will help and despite being 3lb wrong at the weights he looks an each-way player. The two at the top of the market Zabeel Prince and Lord Glitters are both well in at the weights but I would'nt want to be backing too short prices in a handicap of this nature
Order Of St George will be a short price for this for a second year in a row, but he disappointed last year and has charted a pretty similar path so I’m willing to look for something at a bigger price. Having said that, I expect him to turn the tables with his Royal Ascot conqueror, Big Orange, given the softening ground conditions. The one I like is one of the young guns, Stradivarius, he has progressed well throughout this campaign and ran his biggest race to date when third in the St Leger. There was some cut in the ground that day but it is likely to be softer tomorrow so the ground remains a question mark but he is a horse still clearly progressing and may give the favourite most to think about. At a much bigger price, Sheikhzayedroad has to be of interest having won this last year and the softening conditions likely to play to his strengths.
14:00 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes
This race is many people’s race of the day and it is easy to see why, with one of the most exciting horses of the season Harry Angel looking to avenge his Royal Ascot defeat at the hands of Caravaggio. Caravaggio has disappointed since that win but took a step back in the right direction last time at the Curragh. On the other hand, Clive Cox’s colt has since won the July cup and Haydock Sprint cup is emphatic style and is subsequently a short price and deservedly so. Underfoot conditions will be fine but the main concern for him will be the forecast strong headwind, which may blunt his prominent racing style. Librisa Breeze has a fair bit to find on official figures but the blustery conditions will suit him, he will come fast and late and if the gaps appear he could run on into the places. Quiet Reflection ran well at the Curragh after a break last time and has to be feared if back to her best.
14:40 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
The rain this week will have delighted connections of Bateel, who will relish the testing conditions and is the highest rated on official figures. Journey beat the French raider in this contest last year but it is likely the softer conditions will at least close the gap, if not reverse that form. Coronet comes here off a big run in the St Leger where she was probably outstayed so the drop back in trip will suit, she looks the pick of the three year olds, with Horseplay another one who will appreciate the testing going.
15:15 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Ribchester has cemented his title of top European miler this season in fairly decisive fashion, with the only minor blip coming in grueling conditions at Goodwood. He is likely to prove tough to beat but Beat The Bank has the most progressive looking profile in the line-up and made light work of winning a group 2 last time, he is a certain player if handling the step up in class. Another unexposed type, Al Wukair, could be worth chancing. He has only ran twice since running a very eye-catching race in the 2000 Guineas behind Churchill where he rattled home after coming from way back. His most recent performance was his best yet on RPR's and that came on soft ground so we may not have seen the best of him yet. Lancaster Bomber will likely run his usual solid race and it would be no surprise to see him place.
15:50 Qipco Champion Stakes
This is the big one, and as I write this Cracksman is a short priced favourite who certainly looks worth taking on. The son of frankel looks to often hit a flat spot in his races and sometimes takes a while to get going so the drop back in trip is a concern. Brametot ran an absolute cracker in the Arc De Triomphe and was unlucky not to finish closer to Enable. He had the speed to win a group one over a mile so the drop back to 1m2f isn't a concern and provided that Arc run hasn't taken too much out of him he looks to have a good each-way chance. Barney Roy will likely show better than at York where he did too much early on and Cliffs Of Moher may be one at a bigger price to get competitive.
16:30 Balmoral Handicap
This is the big puzzle of the day so I'll keep it brief but there's two I like in here. The first of which is The Grape Escape, younger horses have had a good record in this race in recent years and this three year old gets into this 2lb well in under a penalty. He has won convincingly the last twice, is still progressing and will appreciate the cut in the ground, so he may well be able to take this step up in class in his stride. At a slightly bigger price, Speculative Bid shaped well behind Lord Glitters last time when returning from a long absence and the booking of Jim Crowley in the saddle is certainly interesting. He ran on well late in that contest so the extra furlong here will help and despite being 3lb wrong at the weights he looks an each-way player. The two at the top of the market Zabeel Prince and Lord Glitters are both well in at the weights but I would'nt want to be backing too short prices in a handicap of this nature
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