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Showing posts from November, 2017

Wednesday 29th November 2017

19:10 Kempton - ART OF SWING 12/1 0.5 Points Each-Way Back at SkyBet paying 4 places

Saturday 25th November 2017

15:10 Lingfield -   NEW RICH 5/1 1 Point Each-Way New Rich ran a cracker from a wide draw at Kempton last time out and I think he can reverse placings with a few from that contest who he re-opposes today. He pulled hard in the early stages of the race last time out and had to race wide throughout, he was left with plenty to do and did well to make up as much ground as he did in the home straight. With a better draw today and now 10lb below his highest winning mark, today could be the day he takes advantage with Edward Greatrex taking over in the saddle.

Friday 24th November 2017

19:15 Newcastle - COTO 10/1 0.5 Points Each Way Coto was entitled to need his most recent run when finishing ninth at Dundalk and looking at his form before that he has to come into thoughts for this contest. Prior to that he was beaten just half a length in a higher grade than today's, that was following a run where it fair to say he was out of his depth in listed company, behind Marsha. He is 2 from 2 over course and distance and he looks a fair each-way price at double figures with useful apprentice Charlie Bennet in the saddle claiming 3lb. 19:45 Newcastle - THELLO 7/2 1 Point Win Thello ran a big race last time when when he ran into all sorts of problems in the home straight and had to switch around a group of runners before making his challenge, he was unlucky not to get closer to course specialist Newmarket Warrior on that occasion. He's been nudged up a pound in the handicap for that run but the way he stormed home once in the clear suggests he's up to ...

Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Despite getting a winner on the board yesterday, ending a dry run the blog has endured, I'm still not happy with this month's performance and hope to finish November with a few winners to get us back on track. 16:10 Kempton - JIVE TALKING 13/2 0.5 Points Each-Way There were fancier prices about for this selection earlier but I've been at uni all day so only just had a chance to put this up (22:45 Tuesday evening), but I believe there is still value at the current price. Jive Talking ran with credit last time, without being involved in the finish, in class 2 company and could take advantage of this considerable drop in grade. The winner of that recent class two contest, who she has bumped into twice recently, has gone on to be placed in listed company since so there is no doubting the strength of the race. She is yet to win on the all-weather, but has only had two attempts (both of which on tapeta) and finished second in one of them so it's not a big concern. Mich...

Tuesday 21st November 2017

14:50 Fakenham - SAUCYSIOUX 5/4 1.5 Points Win Saucysioux caught the eye last time out at Cartmel, when staying on strongly in the closing stages, suggesting this step up in distance will suit. That was her second start for Olly Murphy and Richard Johnson remains in the saddle which looks significant. There aren't many who come into this in decent form and odds against looks value to me.

Saturday 18th November 2017

14:10 Lingfield - CHARLES MOLSON 7/1 0.5 Points Each-Way

Friday 17th November 2017

14:00 Lingfield -   SCOTTISH GLEN 40/1 0.5 Points Each-Way Scottish Glen appeals at a big price in this handicap. He has raced at a higher level than this on the turf for much of this season and there is reason to think the return to the all-weather could spark a revival given that he has a better strike rate on synthetic surfaces. It is now over a year since his last all-weather start in which he was hampered and lost all chance in a race won by course specialist My Target, who went on to break a track record here at Lingfield at the end of the year. Scottish Glen was racing off a mark of 94 in a class 2 handicap that day, now down to a mark of 80 in a class 4 he has a chance of bouncing back. The last time he ran in a grade this low on the all-weather was at Kempton when he won off a mark of 85, albeit that was over 2 years ago. There are obviously more progressive younger types in here but he looks well handicapped and is worth a small each-way bet. 20:15 Chelmsford...

Tuesday 14th November 2017

14:50 Lingfield - UN PROPHETE 8/1 1 Point Each-Way Venetia Williams has a cracking record with her chasers at this time of year and I think Un Prophete has a good chance of getting his head in front here. He weakened late on in his latest start, but was entitled to given that it was his first run for some time. He should strip fitter today and runs off a lower mark than last time. Considering he was only beaten a head by Champagne At Tara off a mark of 127, having previously scored comfortably off 115, todays mark of 122 is certainly workable. It's hard to see him not hitting the frame if returning to full fitness.

Monday 13th November 2017

It's a very quiet day on the racing front and it looks like it will be a quiet few days having looked ahead to the cards this week. I have managed to find one small bet over hurdles at Kempton this afternoon. 16:00 Kempton - SALTO CHISCO 100/30 1 Point Win Salto Chisco is clearly thriving on his racing at the moment and that was clearly evident in his smooth success over fences at Huntingdon on his latest start. He returns to hurdles here which shouldn't be a worry and Harry Whittington is a very shrewd handler, he has booked useful conditional jockey James Bowen for the ride, taking off a valuable 3lbs. Stonecoldsoba comes into this attempting to complete a hat-trick  in this sphere, but those wins came in the summer when the standard of racing was likely weaker than today's opposition.

Saturday 11th November 2017

13:35 Doncaster - BERTIEWHITTLE 16/1 0.5 Points Each-Way Bertiewhittle is sure to handle softer conditions at Doncaster, a track where he tends to run very well. He comes into this contest off a mark just 1lb higher than when winning over course and distance back in August, a mark also just 2lb higher than when finishing a neck second in this contest a year ago. The winner of last year's renewal, Oh This Is Us, has since franked that form with his performances this season. Bertiewhittle's most recent run looks strong form too, finishing third behind Makzeem, who has since placed in a competitive handicap at Ascot off a 5lb higher mark, a race which has produced the impressive Balmoral winner Lord Glitters. 16:20 Wolverhampton - MEANDMYSHADOW 11/1 0.5 Points Each-Way Zenovia may prove hard to beat after winning over course and distance last week but there looks each-way value against the favourite here. Meandmyshadow has been very consistent lately and looks to be ...

Friday 10th November 2017

19:00 Dundalk - RED AVENGER 11/1 1 Point Win Red Avenger has patchy form to say the least but his run last time out over course and distance was very eye catching. He met traffic problems in the straight but stayed on like a train in the closing stages and probably would have won in a few more strides. It would be no surprise to see him turn the tables with both Secret Wizard and Tonkinese and the double figure odds look too good to turn down 19:15 Newcastle - PRYING PANDORA 11/1 0.5 Points Each-Way Prying Pandora's recent form figures aren't anything to write home about but it is possible the return to a synthetic surface could help him to bounce back here. He is 1-2 on the all-weather, with both starts coming here at Newcastle, with the win coming in  a higher grade than todays. Recent turf form has seen Richard Fahey's charge slip back down to a mark just 2lb higher than the win over course and distance. Although the second from that race, Alexadrako...

Thursday 9th November 2017

19:45 Chelmsford - SUMMER ICON 10/1 1 Point Each-Way This is a competitive handicap and it is easy to see Tropical Rock winning this as one of the younger less exposed types in the race, however at double figure odds Summer Icon looks an interesting runner.  She has been running in better races than this for much of the season and as a result her handicap mark has tumbled to what looks like a winnable one. In addition to her falling handicap mark, the return to an all-weather track could help her to bounce back, she has only finished out of the frame twice from seven starts on artificial surfaces. With those two exceptions both coming in listed company at the start of the year. Mick Channon's filly has never ran in a grade this low on the all weather and she won off a higher mark than today's in a better grade back in January. Callum Shepherd is on board too, taking off a valuable 3lbs. Back this at bet365, paying 1/4 odds 4 places, profit and loss will be settled ...

Tuesday 7th November 2017

14:35 Exeter - ELEGANT ESCAPE 15/2 1 Point Win Elegant Escape made a very promising chase debut and he may be worth chancing against the two shorter priced runners, Ballyoptic and Barney Dwan. The latter must have been one of the unluckiest horses in training last year and it would be no surprise to see him get his head in front here, but current odds of 2/1 don't offer much juice. Equally, odds on about Ballyoptic can't be seen as value given his disappointing seasonal debut, even if he did need the run. Elegant Escape is a horse I liked a lot over hurdles last season but looked as though he'd prove better over fences and the promise from his debut confirmed that to my eyes. 14:10 Wolverhampton - GREY DESTINY 8/1 1 Point Each-Way Despite continuing his bad habit of breaking slowly, Grey Destiny ran a huge race last time out beaten only a short head. He had a subsequent winner in behind that day and he must have a chance off the same mark today. A mark which is ju...

Saturday 4th November 2017

13:45 Newmarket - ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI 12/1 1 Point Win 18:00 Newcastle - AFRICAN GREY 25/1 0.5 Points Each-Way

Friday 3rd November 2017

For those who don't follow me on Twitter, October's performance is now in the profit and loss section of the website. I'm happy to say it was yet another month of profit (+26.125pts, ROI 50.73%) and with our first runner in November we've already had our first winner, at 4/1. 13:10 Newmarket - ZAMPERINI 6/1 1 Point Each-Way We backed this fella last time out when he was given an absolute stinker of a ride and finished second to a very progressive sort in Hajaam. He was slowly away and raced keenly that day but I was frustrated with how much Kieran Shoemark left him to do when turning for home. He did very well to make up the amount of ground he did and connections are clearly confident of a big run despite the 2lb rise for finishing second, as they have booked Jim Crowley for the occasion. Mike Murphy's charge finished a close second in a higher grade than this on his penultimate start when racing off a mark just a pound lower than today's. I advise you t...

Thursday 2nd November 2017

I usually post the previous month's review at this time but having only just got back from Rome (10pm Wednesday as I write this). There will be no write up for the bet for the same reason, but will try put a few words on my Twitter (@CFC_CM) in the morning. 13:50 Lingfield - GULLIVER 4/1 1 Point Win