Friday 30th March 2018 - AW Championships Day
All-weather racing isn't everyones cup of tea but those who read this blog will know that it takes up a big chunk of my bets. With a cracking card on All-Weather Championships day at Lingfield, I've managed to find the time to put some hard study in and have produced write ups for the full card. Only time will tell whether those hours were well spent, but hopefully we can bag some winners!
13:30 Lingfield - AW Apprentice Handicap
Not the best race in the context of this meeting and it looks a
bit of a puzzle in terms of finding the winner. Eljaddaaf is a horse I've
followed for much of his career, he is a fairly reliable performer and showed
his excellent turn of foot again when looking better than ever in a course and
distance event last month. He was drawn widest of all on that occasion (stall
14 of 14), and it would be no exaggeration to say he was forced race six or
seven horses wide rounding the bend for home, despite this his finished
incredibly strongly in the closing stages to nail Mickey late on, who has
finished second in a higher grade since. With Dean Ivory in excellent form at
the moment, if they go a decent clip up front (which looks likely) I can see
him arriving late on the scene despite his 4lb higher mark. Silent Echo was behind the winner in the aforementioned course and
distance event, but got no luck in running and was eventually eased down in
what was his first run since leaving Roger Charlton, off a 140 day absence. It
would be no surprise to see him finish closer given his unexposed profile.
Irish raider Master Speaker has been
impressive on his first two starts for his new yard but is now a whopping 21lbs
higher in the weights since joining Adrian McGuiness. Early Morning is normally seen to best effect when dominating from the
front, but it looks like he'll face competition for the lead from Swift Approval which won't do either of their chances any favours. At
bigger odds Take The Helm makes some
appeal, he caught the eye when returning from a mammoth 320 day absence over a
trip which wouldn't be his optimum. Brian Meehan's gelding returns to a course
and distance where his form figures read 2252114 so he looks like a good
each-way play at double figures.
14:00 Lingfield - AW Marathon
Championships
A smaller field here but still not straight forward, that being said, without
wanting to state the obvious I think it will be dominated by those at the top
of the market. As I write this, one of the current joint favourites is Red Verdon. Ed Dunlop's charge,
who raced in the Derby a couple of years ago, looks to have a good chance on
form if he stays this longer trip. He has been raced at middle distances for
the majority of his career and beat the subsequent winter derby winner at
Kempton back in November. This is first attempt at two miles but according to
his trainer he "has a good temperament, which will give him the chance to
stay the extra distance". Watersmeet, the other joint
favourite at this moment in time, has been in fine form this winter, landing a
hat-trick at Kempton back in February. But, prior to running up that impressive
sequence, he was comprehensively put in his place by Mountain Bell. Ralph Beckett has
kept his mare fresh since that comfortable victory and with her 5lb mares
allowance she looks worth looking at. On official ratings Soldier In Action is top of the pile here, Adam Kirby is booked for the ride
which is an obvious positive, but he would seriously need to bounce back to
form on recent evidence.
14:30 Lingfield - AW Fillies & Mares Final
Another open contest here in the Fillies and Mares final, a race where it is difficult to discount any of them. Having said that, I like the chances of Lucymai, who completed a hat-trick when seeing off the challenge of stablemate Eljaddaaf who went on to land a double subsequently. She ran much better than her finishing position suggests on her latest start, where she was drawn wide and forced to stay wide when turning for home, considering the ground she forfeited she did well to keep on as well as she did in the closing stages. With a much better draw this time round and, as previously mentioned, a trainer in a rich vein of form, I would fancy her to reverse the form with Carolinae. Soul Silver beat the latter pretty convincingly the last day, but the drop back to seven furlongs may not be in her favour here. The men of the moment, William Haggas and James Doyle, team up with Diagnostic here. She may well have some untapped potential, but she would need to settle a lot better to unlock any of that talent. Top rated in the contest is Mia Tesoro, she ran a big race when a neck second behind Petite Jack when not getting the clearest of runs, but the way she finished the race that day suggests she may be another who may not want this drop back in trip.
15:05 Lingfield - AW Sprint Championships
Given that he is 2-2 over this course and distance, it is not hard to see why Kachy is a short priced favourite for this, especially given he defied his bad draw in a listed contest here at the beginning of February and he is top of all these on RPRs. Gracious John finished last of the twelve runners in that race, but that run was too be bad to be true and he bounced back on his next start, so he is sure to be more competitive on this occasion. Gifted Master is officially rated 2lb higher than both those mentioned and has a good record fresh so the absence shouldn't be of any concern. Athletico is another who cannot be entirely discounted, although a string of seconds can be off putting he was unlucky last time and has the services of Adam Kirby this time.
15:40 Lingfield - AW 3 Year-Old Final
This is the first contest where there is a real short priced favourite, in the shape of Corinthia Knight. I normally like to take on favourites like this, but it is hard to look past Archie Watson's colt here. He is a decent way clear of these on both official and racing post ratings and scored comfortably on his last start in Britain at Newcastle, before completing a hat-trick in France earlier this month. Never Back Down did beat Archie Watson's colt at Wolverhampton back in December, however he was probably flattered by the way the pace collapsed and ultimately suited those who were held up. Breathless Time may be a better alternative to the favourite, he has won very comfortably on two of his three starts to date and certainly goes into the 'could be anything' category, though his wide draw has to be a little off-putting. The string of 1's next to Rock On Baileys' name will likely draw a lot of attention, he may have an each-way squeak but this is a significant step up in class.
16:10 Lingfield - AW Mile Championships
Another shorty here, Second Thought, who is an excellent 6-6 on the all-weather and judged on his latest win, when odds-on in a listed contest at Wolverhampton, he could well still be improving. Arcanada is another in with a big shout, he is two from two over course and distance but his forward racing style is likely to be put under pressure by other prominent racers including Goring and Sacred Act. It would be wrong to not give a mention to Spare Parts after his incredible all-weather campaign, but he looks to be out of his depth at this level. Gabrial, who was once seen running behind the great Frankel back in the day, showed he still has big races in him when running a cracker in the Lincoln last weekend but he is still yet to win on a synthetic surface.
16:40 Lingfield - AW Middle Distances
Championships
The top of the market involves those who finished first and second
in the Winter Derby here over course and distance, Mr Owen and Master The World, placings which were later reversed due to the former veering
badly to the right and inconveniencing the second. They are both likely to have
a big say in this but there is another one who ran in the Winter Derby who
takes my eye, John Ryan's Battle Of Marathon. He went off a 33/1
shot in the course and distance contest last month and certainly outran his
odds in the hands of Josephine Gordon. After being denied a clear run at a
crucial stage he did well to make up ground in the closing stages and finished
a fast finishing third. I am surprised to see him priced up at as big as 20/1,
I backed him earlier in the week and will certainly take advantage of any
bookmaker concessions should any offer an extra place. Star Archer wouldn't have been suited by the slow pace when
disappointing at short odds at Kempton last time, he is still highly raced and
cannot be discounted. Petite Jack is another who
didn't have the clearest of runs over course and distance last time and is a
very good horse on the all-weather.
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