Northumberland Plate 2019



Unfortunately I haven't had time to have a full look at the weekends cards as it's my birthday today but I found a couple of selections for the Northumberland Plate who I will be chancing each-way, selections and reasoning are below.


15:35 Newcastle

Bartholomeu Dias has stamina to prove here today but recent performances suggest he's capable of staying this trip and he will definitely be a bet for me. He progressed well for Charlie Hills last year culminating in a convincing win when making all at Wolverhampton over 1m4f on his final start of the year.

He made a perfectly respectable seasonal reappearance when second to the re-opposing King's Advice, who had race fitness on his side that day. Bartholomeu Dias improved on that when posting a career best effort to win a race here at Newcastle back in April. That handicap has worked out very well since, the third Baghdad won a handicap at Newmarket on his next start before landing the Duke Of Edinburgh at the Royal meeting last week and is subsequently 11lb higher than the Newcastle contest. The fourth placed horse also advertised the form well when finishing a close second on his next start at Chelmsford.

As mentioned already, Charlie Hills' charge needs to prove he can run to that level over this extra distance but the way he ran on in the closing stages does give some hope. As does the fact that connections have him entered for the Group 1 Goodwood Cup over 2m later this season. The decision to keep him fresh after his course win could pay off considering he is only up 4lb for that run, Baghdad couldn't have done much more to advertise that form since.


Time To Study was a huge eye-catcher in the Ascot Stakes at the royal meeting last time out and if he is back to his best he has to have a huge chance at Newcastle on Saturday. He cruised into the race at Ascot and was leading briefly just over a furlong out, ultimately he was only run out of it by a couple of thorough stayers but looked the one to take from the race for me. Ian Williams is excellent at targeting his horses at these kind of races and Time To Study looks very well treated for Saturday.

He finished sixth in this race last year off a mark of 108 but this year he will be bottom weight running off 96, if that Ascot performance is a sign of a return to form then has to have a massive each-way chance.

Bartholomeu Dias 14/1 - 1 Point Each-Way

Time To Study 16/1 - 1 Point Each-Way

*Make the most of any extra places on offer, plenty of firms will be offering more than 4 places*


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day One

Image
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle We have become accustomed to seeing a short-priced Willie Mullins-trained runner in the curtain raiser in recent times. Still, the market is much more open this year as a result of Ballyburn switching to the Ballymore instead (can't keep up with the changes of sponsors for that race). That being said, two of Mullins' runners are battling for favoritism as I write this.  Tullyhill  is a frustrating one for me, I have a useless ante-post slip for the Ballymore, but he has progressed well with each run this season and runs much better over this 2-mile trip than when tried at longer trips previously. I would still have major concerns regarding his jumping when he faces this better-class opposition, though. He got a freebie on the front end last time out and would be hugely surprised if the others allow him a soft lead in this, I'm not sure his jumping will hold up if he is taken out of his comfort zone. His engine may be good enough to get away...
Read more

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day Two

Image
  14:50 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Sa Majeste  has been all the rage in this in the build up to the festival and it's easy to see why punters would latch on to him,  a completely unexposed hurdler having had just two starts for Willie Mullins. The first of those starts he disappointed at 13/8 in April 2023, but last time out he was impressive when beating Noble Yeats over 2m4f at Christmas. However, that wouldn't be the grand national winner's optimum trip and I'm wary of backing Sa Majeste on the basis of that run alone. I really fancied Doddiethegreat  to run a huge race in this when I first looked but the form of the Henderson stable is certainly tempering my enthusiasm, with 5 of his 6 runners being pulled up on day one. That being said, everything is price related and he drifts enough (would want 12/1+) then I will end up backing him. There is certainly no worries regarding Henry De Bromhead's stable form and BALLYADAM  looks to be a solid option with almo...
Read more

Cheltenhan Festival 2024 - Day Three

Image
  14:10 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle GABBY'S CROSS   has caught the eye the last twice, running on well late after trouble in running to finish 2nd and he has clearly been held back to protect his mark for this. His Irish mark is 127 and although the UK handicapper has given him 133 here, that still looks like a very favorable mark based on his chase form (rated 143 at the start of the season). He is proven on all types of ground and Darragh O'Keeffe rides well around Cheltenham finishing in the first 4 in 35% of his rides here and +£13 to £1 level stakes. GABBYS CROSS 11/1 - 1 Point Each-Way 14:50 - Ryanair Chase I think there is an outstanding bet in here at the time of writing, not an imaginative selection but you can get 9/2 with 4 places each way on ENOVOI ALLEN  and I think that has to be taken. He won this last year and ran to the same RPR when 2nd to Gerri Colombe over a 3-mile trip where he was just outstayed. Back down to 2m4f at Cheltenham where he is 3-5, I fin...
Read more