Royal Ascot 2019 - Day 2

The first day of Royal Ascot 2019 started with a bang for followers of this blog with Lord Glitters sticking his neck out to land us a nice 14/1 winner. The miserable weather didn't get in the way of some excellent racing and it looks as though more rain is on the cards (as well as some very good racing again).

There's no doubt the race of the day, indeed probably the week, is the Prince Of Wales Stakes at 15:40. Magical has very much picked up where she left off last season and Arc runner up Sea Of Class aims to do the same on her reappearance. However heavy rain on Tuesday which is forecast to continue into Wednesday means at the time of writing the participation of William Haggas' filly looks to be in some doubt. Waldgeist is another who can't be discounted but again conditions may be going against him now, so the race will be one to watch rather than bet on for me.

Instead I have been focusing my attention on one of the biggest puzzles of the week, the Royal Hunt Cup.


Royal Hunt Cup (Ascot 17:00, Wednesday)

We landed the winner of last years renewal on this blog in the shape of Settle For Bay, he's back for another crack at it this year off a 6lb higher mark. Although that will make things tougher, you only have to watch the replay of last years contest to see that if he is in the same mood today, that rise in the weights may not stop him from winning it again. The bigger worry for his supporters would be that since that day he hasn't run to anywhere near that level of form. That being said there was certainly encouragement to be taken from his most recent start at Leopardstown, he was dropped to the rear from the start and was given a quiet ride before weaving his way through rivals late on when the race was probably already over. You can be sure that he will come on for that run and connections will be aiming to peak him for this contest just like last year, however the forecast softer ground is just enough to put me off this time around.

It's worth taking some time to assess the favourite, New Graduate who has probably been the most talked about handicap entry of the week. He absolutely sluiced in at Ripon, demolishing a field which included a number of subsequent winners. Kaeso, the runner up, went very close to winning the Victoria Cup on his next start and then won at Chester. Further beihind, the third and fourth have both won twice since so there is some serious substance to that form. As always I try and pick some holes in short priced favourites in these kind of races and I think I've found enough to put me off again on this one. Firstly, as impressive as the Ripon performance was, it didn't go unnoticed by the handicapper and the 15lb rise in the weights in combination with this step up in grade will likely make life tougher. Also, the draw looks to have done him no favours at all being stuck out on the wing in stall 1.

Elsewhere one at a bigger price who I think has gone under the radar is Clon Coulis. She has some pretty decent form in the book and although this will be her first run in a big field handicap of this nature, I think that may be exactly what she wants. The mare won back to back listed races last summer with the latter of the two coming here at Ascot last summer. That was over the mile trip on the round course, winning by a neck despite veering violently left in the closing stages. The second, fourth and fifth have all gone on to score in listed company since so it looks very strong form with the benefit of hindsight. David Barron's runner returned to action this season with a comfortable success in a conditions race at Chelmsford before disappointing at Lingfield where I believe she had her excuses (drawn widest and held up in a race which wasn't run to suit).

Given she likes to be ridden quietly and make her challenge late, it's likely this race could be set up perfectly for her and who better to be in the saddle on the straight mile at Ascot than that man Jamie Spencer. Being drawn 18 should give him options and she is close enough to the likes of Glendevon and Afaak who should be up with the pace. A dual listed winner running off a mark of 99 here who is versatile ground-wise, I think 20/1 looks a huge price and I would advise shopping around for the best place terms.

Of the more obvious contenders Robin Of Navan must have a big chance, having the group class form in the book and looking unlucky at Newbury on his latest start. Also Raising Sand rarely runs a bad race here at Ascot and I'm sure connections are delighted to see the rain arrive. However, since first looking at this race over the weekend that pair have attracted significant support in the market and are probably about the right price now so I will leave them. Another one of last years runners who is back for another crack is What's The Story and I think he could be worth a few quid each-way here. Keith Dalgleish's gelding finished an unlucky fourth in this last year and could have a chance of bettering that effort this time around. Although it's fair to say even with a clearer passage he still wouldn't have got near last years winner Settle For Bay, the conditions are very different this time around and that could be enough to reverse that form. He won a big field handicap at Doncaster on soft ground earlier in his career and comes here off the back of the best run of his life when landing a York handicap last month. The second from that contest has since won at the same track in a very competitive race so the 4lb rise for What's The Story may not be enough to prevent another win, especially with his trainer in scorching form - firing in no less than five winners on Monday.