QIPCO British Champions Day 2019
Been quiet on here as I've recently started a new job but I've managed to find the time to get the annual Champions Day preview up in time for Saturday. Good luck if you choose to follow!
13:35 Ascot - QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes
This years renewal of the sprint looks wide open and despite the horrendous ground conditions we have a very decent field size with the 17 runners. Given the heavy conditions underfoot and the fact that a few bookmakers are offering four places each-way I'm keen to find something I think can hit the frame at a big price, rather than playing in the win only market.
The one that has been well backed all week is One Master and as I write this she has just gone favourite. She won well in France last time over seven furlongs and that extra stamina will help here today, but now at 9/2 she's not a bet for me.
It's unlikely he'll have enough in the locker to win this (by no means impossible) but I'm going to side with an old favourite Brando each-way at a massive price. He's a certainty to handle the ground, which going to be a big tick in a big box on all straight track action today, and he has run well in a couple of previous editions of the race. Kevin Ryan's charge was behind a few of these at Haydock last time but he broke a blood vessel on that occasion so did well to finish as close as he did. RPR's suggest he's as good as ever this year despite being 7 years old and the 33/1 on offer looks juicy enough to me.
I'll also be having a saver each-way on the horse drawn next door, Dream Of Dreams, he had his own problems in that Haydock contest and his run over course and distance in the Diamond Jubilee is some of the best on offer in this race. Back on this stiffer track the 16/1 currently available looks a bet to me as well.
Brando 33/1
Dream Of Dreams 16/1
14:10 Ascot - QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup
I'm gonna skip over this contest as it's probably going to be a no bet race for me. Shrewdies have been trying to get Stradivarius beat all season but he always seems to find enough to earn another '1' next to his name.
He should be winning this and the each-way alternative earlier in the week, Kew Gardens, has now probably found his correct place in the market. For me its one to sit back and hopefully watch the greatest stayer of my lifetime notch yet another Group 1.
14:45 Ascot - QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
Despite what the market would have you believe Anapurna is actually comes out on top in terms of official BHA ratings here, but it is her stablemate Star Catcher who looks likely to go off a short price favourite. The latter has been impressive in making all on her last two starts but it's very unlikely jockeys today will let Frankie get away with a soft lead today.
I'll be looking elsewhere for a bet, Antonia De Vega is certainly interesting for the red hot Ralph Beckett team, she could have bundles of improvement in her. However, she will definitely need to find that improvement to take this given she is rated 10lb lower than the market principles.
Aidan O'Brien has won this race for the last two years and I'm going to take Fleeting to make it three on the trot for him. She has been seen running on late to finish close in a couple of good races this year with a couple of hard luck stories along the way. The daughter of Zoffany should have a good pace to aim at here and her versatility ground-wise makes her worth a small bet here with this being on the inner course which will be sounder ground than the straight.
Fleeting 7/1
15:20 Ascot - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Back to what people are expecting to be a swamp of a straight track for this mile contest, conditions mean that despite being a full 6lb clear of the field on official ratings Benbatl is available at 7/1 at the time of writing. Theres a chance his pure class edge might pull him through in this field but I'd rather be onside one who I know will handle the ground. Or in this case two.
Regular readers will probably be able to guess my first selection, Lord Glitters got Royal Ascot off to flyer for followers of the blog landing us a 16/1 punt. He was also one of my bigger bets of last year's Champions Day when a slightly disappointing 6th in this race, but this year connections appear to have learnt from their mistakes and he arrives a fresher horse, having swerved the trip to Canada he went on in the run up to the race last year. With Ascot form figures of 212261, the 15/2 available with four places each-way looks a cracking bet.
A much more speculative punt is Raising Sand at a massive 80/1. I'm not going to pretend there's a deep research-based case to be made for him winning this, but the softer the ground the better for him and his Ascot record is outstanding too. Last time was a very rare blip and if he runs back to near his best it's reasonable to think he could be running on late into the places, again one to make the most of bookmakers who are paying 4 places each-way.
Lord Glitters 15/2
Raising Sand 80/1
16:00 Ascot - QIPCO Champion Stakes
If it wasn't for a certain Gosden trained mare then Magical would have a few more 1's next to her name this season and it is easy to see why she is a short price for the feature race today. But to back any horse at 11/8 I'm going to want some pretty water-tight reasoning behind it. For her I have the nagging doubt that she comes here off the back of her worst performance of the season, which came on desperate ground in France and may well have taken a lot out of her.
The Japanese mare Deirdre finished three lengths behind Magical in the Irish Champions Stakes but that distance certainly doesn't tell the full story. She got stuck in behind a wall of horses at Leopardstown and had to stop in her tracks at a vital stage of the race, it was impressive the ground she managed to make up in the closing stages and theres an argument to be had that with a clear run she could have won that race. She did disappoint here at Ascot earlier this year but she has fared better since Oisin Murphy has taken over in the saddle. I'd much rather be on her at 15/2 each-way rather than the short priced favourite, the ground is a slight concern but this will be run on the inner course which is drying all the time.
Deirdre 15/2
16:40 Ascot - Balmoral Handicap
This is a race I usually really like to get my teeth stuck into but I'm keeping this write up fairly brief. One of my most frustrating bets of the year was when Clon Coulis got beat a nostril in the Royal Hunt Cup earlier this year, denying me 28/1 winner in the process. After a couple of below par runs, where she actually had some excuses, she is able to come back and race off the same mark of 99 as when second at the Royal Meeting.
Any time she has run on ground with a decent amount of cut in it she has run to a very high level and although I'd probably have preferred her not to be draw right out on the wing, Spencer should be able to drop her in behind and work his magic from there with a late run.
Clon Coulis 9/1
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