Royal Ascot 2020 - Day Four





15:00 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)

Elarqam is definitely in danger of becoming a cliff horse for me and he probably doesn't win as often as he should, but I really liked what I saw on his return at Haydock earlier this month, and I like it even more now given Lord North boosted the form with his emphatic win in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes yesterday. Elarqam was only beaten a short head that day and was closing again at the line after looking beat, this will be the first time he has tackled 1m4f but I think it may be just what he wants. The best run of his career came in York Stakes when demolishing Addeybb on his beloved soft ground, he won going away that day and stays on well in his races, suggesting this step in trip could unlock a bit extra.

Anthony Van Dyck obviously commands respect as a Derby winner and his comeback at Newmarket was a strong run but he has a patchy profile and I'm not sure these softer conditions will play to his strengths. A couple who do look like they will relish conditions are Morando and the progressive Hamish, however I think they lack the class edge of the selection.

Elarqam 5/2 - 2 Points Win



15:35 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Pierre Lapin is a perfect 2 from 2 so far and was impressive when winning at Newbury back in September but this big field presents a completely different challenge for an inexperienced horse so I will predictably swerve the market leader here.

In contrast, Millisle looks one who will thrive in the conditions this race presents. Jessica Harrington has been very frank in her assessment of her performance in the guineas, saying it is effectively worth forgetting that run ever happened. She is the only Group One winner in the field, a win which came over this six furlong distance so the drop back in trip looks a positive. The daughter of Starspangledbanner has been seen to best effect in strongly run races over 6f, which this 16 runner field should give her and she also has form on soft ground which is a big plus. Currently available at 12/1 with 4 places widely available, she looks the bet to me.

Millisle 12/1 - 1 Point Each-Way



16:10 Queen's Vase (Group 2)

Andrew Balding won this last year with Dashing Willoughby and although Punctuation looks up against it here, I think there's a good chance he could outrun his big price. I'm happy to put a line through his seasonal reappearance, the 1m2f trip would've been plenty sharp enough and he wouldn't have felt at home on the quick conditions. I'd rather judge him on his impressive Kempton success where he galloped his rivals into submission and bolted up by 11 lengths in an impressive time. He displayed a high knee action there suggesting this deeper ground should be right up his street and this step up to 1m6f looks a good move, hopefully SDS can get the royal runner into a nice rhythm and top up the Queen's furlough pay.


Punctuation 28/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way


16:40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)

Another puzzle of a handicap here but with SkyBet offering six places I'm happy to have a small each-way play in the race. Indianapolis started off his career with Aidan O'Brien but only raced three times before moving to James Given where he took a bit of time to find his feet but after the application of cheek pieces he progressed nicely throughout the season, culminating in a handicap win at Leicester over this trip on heavy ground, a career best effort. Earlier that season he had won over course and distance here at Ascot in the Shergar Cup. He was disappointing on his return but he'll like this softer ground and hopefully that run has put him spot on for this, with his trainer operating at a 40% strike rate over the last two weeks, he's worth a few pennies each-way for sure.

Indianapolis 12/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

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