Friday 31st July 2020

 


14:45 Goodwood

This is exactly the type of puzzle I like to pick apart and there's one line of form which brings a lot of these horses together, the Royal Hunt Cup last month. Montatham finished second in the Ascot contest and made amends next time when reversing the form with Dark Vision on 3lb better terms at Sandown. That horse has since won a listed race so it's easy to see why William Haggas' grey is near the front of the market at the time of writing. Vale Of Kent, Afaak and Baltic Baron all ran respectable races in the aforementioned Hunt Cup and it's the latter who looks the value in this Golden Mile.

Baltic Baron ran an absolute blinder in that Ascot heat, he was still last of the 23 runners at the furlong pole but made good late ground to run on into fifth. The front two have obviously advertised the form well since and the sixth, Bell Rock, ran very well here this week when third in a big handicap on Tuesday. Montatham is now 7lb higher than winning at Ascot whereas David O'Meara's gelding is 3lb lower, that may not ultimately be enough to turn the table but it should see him finish closer and makes the 22/1 about him look decent value. I'm happy to excuse the run when upped in trip last time out and the return to Goodwood should help given he was a very creditable 5th in this last year off a 3lb lower mark when meeting trouble in-running. The draw and his strike rate are the only factors the temper my enthusiasm here, but I think that is factored into the price and I'll make the most of extra places available. O’Meara obviously has a better chance in the shape of Prompting but although he is well in this is a completely different level of opposition to what he has faced so far, whereas the selection is a regular at this level.

In light of my concerns about the draw I also want to have one of the lower drawn runners onside. It's fair to say Bless Him's best efforts have come over the straight course at Ascot but I still think he's worth chancing here at Goodwood as I think this big field will play to his strengths. He hasn't shown much so far this year but dips into much shallower waters here back in handicap company, he gave Lord North 4lb and a comprehensive beating at the end of last season and a performance anywhere near that would give him a massive shout. In the hope that being held up off a likely decent pace in a big field will help him return to form, I'll have a few pennies on each-way.

Baltic Baron 22/1 - 1 Point Each-Way

Bless Him 16/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

(Both 4 Places each-way)

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