Saturday 5th September 2020

 

14:15 Haydock

Favourite Moon was very disappointing at York last time and looking at the prices the odds compilers have been very forgiving here and the first time tongue tie here looks like a bit of guesswork from connections. Arthurian Fable finished ahead in that Melrose Handicap and looks a progressive type with some very solid handicap form in the book already. His win at Sandown has worked out incredibly well, the third placed Postileo won at Sailsbury next time and the fourth placed Stag Horn won by ten lengths at Catterick on his next start, even the fifth was only narrowly touched off at Newmarket subsequently. Still on an upwards curve, I think he deserves to be favourite and looks worth having onside at 5/2.

Arthurian Fable 5/2 - 1.5 Points Win

15:05 Ascot

I feel like Kipps has had a fair few chances already this season and hasn't managed to get his head in front so I will be looking past him in this. After making plenty of ground from the back on a day where it paid to be up with the pace at Kempton, it's probably worth upgrading My Frankel's already impressive victory last time out. He is very unexposed and although this opening mark of 96 may look a touch harsh, his previous victory at Leicester has been franked since and with more progression almost certain, I will be backing him to take the necessary step forward to land this.

My Frankel 4/1 - 1 Point Win

16:00 Haydock

I put Came From The Dark last time out at York with the caveat that he may be one to follow for the season rather than that day, as he had a massive absence to overcome. He duly ran like he needed it and was ultimately poorly positioned throughout so, even if he had been fit, it would've taken a huge run to win. He gets softer conditions here and returns to a course and distance he has won over impressively twice before. The form of his stable tempers enthusiasm slightly but he has a good chance of bouncing back on his favoured ground with Oisin Murphy booked. Aplomb is clearly the main danger on this going but I'm happy to chance Ed Walker's charge.

Came From The Dark 8/1 - 1 Point Win

16:15 Ascot

My old friend Raising Sand runs here, he absolutely loves it here at Ascot and although he'd probably prefer a bit more juice in the ground it seems a bit odd that he is double the price of the favourite at the time of writing, Blue Mist. Jamie Osbourne's charge has finished ahead of the latter off the same terms as today twice in the past and the favourite doesn't look the easiest of rides. However, I also like one at a bigger price here in Almufti. He did followers of this blog a favour when hitting the frame in a similar race at the Royal Meeting and although he has disappointed since I think he has had valid excuses and he may well bounce back under similar conditions today. Since that Ascot run he disappointed on the July course in a small field which wouldn't have suited and hasn't had the clearest of passages in his two starts since. He's now 3lb lower than that solid Ascot run and this return to a big field handicap looks likely to suit, with 5 places available each-way he looks worth having on side.

Almufti 22/1 - 1 Point Each-Way