Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Day 1

It’s fair to say the gap between the 2020 and 2021 Cheltenham Festivals has been... eventful? But we’re back (albeit without crowds) and the festival will provide a welcome distraction from lockdown life this week so I thought I’d return with daily previews.

Just to be clear, I certainly won’t be betting on every race but I do know people do like to go through the card, so I’ll point out the bets I’m having and share my opinions on as many races as possible. Hopefully we can get a few winners on the board this week.

13:20 - Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m1/2f

Regular followers of the blog will know it’s almost a natural instinct of mine to take on a short price favourite where possible, but with the small field I’ve found that angle difficult with Appreciate It here.  My niggling doubt with him is that his most impressive performances this season have come on deeper ground than he will encounter here, an although there has some unexpected rain and his class may see him through regardless, I’d rather chance something at a bigger price each-way.

This is a fairly speculative play but I am struggling to see why GRUMPY CHARLEY is about five times the price of Soaring Glory, given their similar profiles. They both have the same official rating after winning handicaps off similar marks previously and the speed figures of previous runs both compare pretty well in this field too. Grumpy Charley won very cosily last time, is still open to significant improvement and versatile ground-wise. His wins have come at Chepstow but that is a undulating left-handed track with a stiff finish, so presents a slightly similar test. The saying ‘you can only beat what is put in front of you’ comes to mind here and 33/1 at the time of writing looks worth playing to small stakes each-way for me (pray that the 8 runners stand their ground so we get 3 places each-way).

GRUMPY CHARLEY 33/1

13:55 - Ankle Novices’ Chase 2m

Only a few days ago this looked like the race of the festival and while it will still be a great watch, the absence of Energumene seems to have robbed us of a blinding renewal of the Arkle. Shishkin has been pretty much faultless since overcoming trouble in running to win the supreme last year and it is easy to see why he is a warm order here. However, in a case of what is probably heart over head betting (not always the most profitable method) I can’t resist a small bet on ALLMANKIND here. I was lucky enough to be at Sandown to witness his win in the Henry VIII, the way he attacks his fences is brilliant and although theres a chance he may get outclassed by the fav here, he’ll make sure it’s no easy race and you can be sure he’ll be great fun to watch.

ALLMANKIND 5/1

14:30 - Ultima Handicap Chase 3m1f

This is another favourite I’ve found it very hard to get away from, in fact this is one I will be backing in the shape of HAPPYGOLUCKY. Kim Bailey continues in excellent form and this horse looks to have a nice progressive profile and looks up to justifying favouritism here. He has only raced under rules seven times but three of those runs came here at Cheltenham, so despite being unexposed he has a decent amount of course form. Since finishing fourth in the Martin Pipe last year despite being hampered late on, he has been excellent over fences so far this season only failing to win once (when 2nd at Fakenham). That came in a race which recorded a decent speed figure and on a track which was probably too sharp for his liking so I would excuse that defeat. He made amends when winning a novice chase here at Cheltenham in December and has been kept fresh to protect his mark for this, it’s not my usual style to tip a favourite in a race of this nature but he looks pretty difficult to get away from. 

HAPPYGOLUCKY 7/2

15:05 - Champion Hurdle 2m

Honeysuckle hadn’t convinced me she was the superstar everyone was building her up to be prior to Leopardstown, but that win at the Dublin racing festival was seriously impressive and sets a very high standard for the others to aim at. However, I’ll be putting my money elsewhere as I don’t think she offers much value at current prices. With firms paying extra places (William Hill paying 5), I will play one each-way against the market leaders and SILVER STREAK fits the bill for me. Evan Williams’ gelding did me a massive favour when hitting the frame in this race back in 2019 at a price of 80/1 and, while we’re not getting odds anywhere near that this time, he has looked better than ever this year so deserves to be considerably shorter. He’ll be coming here off the back of a career best performance when beating Epatante by six lengths at Kempton and the switch of track to Cheltenham isn’t a worry. In fact, its probably a positive in terms of his place prospects given his form figures here read 22362 in some pretty hot contests. He’s proven he is versatile with regards to tactics and has had a nice break since Christmas to keep him fresh for this. The grey may have his work cut out to win this but I think he has a great chance of finishing in the money and you never know at Cheltenham. 

With these extra places on offer I will also be having a saver on SHARJAH at around 12/1. He ran very well in this race last year when probably left with too much to do and he is likely to be ridden patiently which could benefit him here, I can see him picking his way through the field late on and he has posted speed figures which show he is well in with a win shout too.

SILVER STREAK 18/1

SHARJAH 12/1

15:40 - Mares’ Hurdle 2m4f

I would love to come up with a really clever angle for this race with a short priced favourite but I think CONCERTISTA is very solid here. She blew me away with her performance at the festival last year and has breezed through her races this year including at Leopardstown last time out where she had Black Tears in behind, who has since won a Grade 3 in impressive fashion herself. Roksana is the only Grade 1 winner in the line-up but that came in fortunate circumstances and all her improvement this season has come over longer trips. The race has a history of throwing up some big priced placed horses and generally it pays to be held up, Indefatigable and Dolcita both fit the bill there and I may well end up backing one of those each-way too.

CONCERTISTA 11/10

16:15 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle 2m

Houx Gris has been a big talking horse for this race in recent weeks but he is well found in the market and again I think there’s a couple further down the betting worth playing each-way. Particularly, HOMME PUBLIC  who beat the aforementioned Nicholls runner by 4 lengths in France when second on his racecourse debut. Houx Gris did turn that form around next time but only a neck separated them that day so the discrepancy in price seems excessive. Oliver Greenall’s gelding has only raced twice since joining from France, the first of which is excusable as he lost shoe in the heavy ground but he won very well at Market Rasen subsequently. I managed to get 25/1 and that price has evapourated since I started writing this piece, but 14/1 is still a bet for me just about. A lot of firms are offering six places each-way on this so be sure to shop around and get the best terms possible.

I’m also going to keep BALKO SAINT onside here each-way at a nice big price. He is the only runner in the field who is well in at the weights after his win at Wincanton last time out which generated a decent speed figure, with the front two pulling nicely clear of the rest of the field. He was unruly before the race last time and actually fell over before the race started so it was impressive to see him battle the way he did after pre-race trouble. I’m hoping he isn’t ridden too close to the pace as I usually prefer to be with something more patiently ridden in these kind of races, but he is a nice price and the extra places have tempted me.

HOMME PUBLIC 14/1

BALKO SAINT 33/1

16:50 - National Hunt Chase 3m6f

This is a race which really doesn’t appeal to me from a betting point of view. It’s very different to a usual year with no amateur jockeys and a smaller field than usual. I think the two at the top of the market, Galvin and Next Destination, both have solid claims. The former has been aimed at this from a long way out and ran well at the festival last year but the late change of stable has to be a small worry. Likewise Next Destination has some solid festival form in the book and shapes as though this step in trip should suit, but his price has shortened considerably in recent days and means this will most likely be a watching brief for me.