Cheltenham Festival 2022 - Day 1

 

13:30 - Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The first race of the Cheltenham Festival 2022 and on paper quite possibly one of the best. Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand with Constitution Hill and Jonbon both near the head of the betting. The style of the formers victories have been taking, however I think winning distances at Sandown on that sort of ground can be exaggerated and it could be argued Jonbon’s form has slightly more substance to it. Kilcruit looks to follow in the footsteps of stablemate Appreciate It by bucking the trend against seven year olds, he had a slow start to the season but bounced back to something near his best when winning by 21 lengths last time out.

Tactically it looks like Silent Revolution and Dysart Dynamo are likely to make sure this is a thorough test on the front end, the latter has the highest official rating and could be hard to peg back if Paul Townend can settle him in front and get the fractions right. That being said there is enough early pace to think that a strong stayer could be suited by the way this race pans out and that’s what lead me to MIGHTY POTTER. Gordon Elliot's charge is unlucky not to be unbeaten under rules, his sole defeat coming when a strong finishing third in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse which wasn’t run to suit. He made amends last time out when beating Three Stripe life and at around 10/1 at the time of writing looks big for this Grade 1 winner.

MIGHTY POTTER 8/1

14:10 - Arkle Novices’ Chase

Both For Pleasure and Magic Daze seem to only know one way of running, blitzing from the front. Initially I thought others may press for the lead too but it is likely they have been making the running due to small field sizes rather than it being their chosen style. Favourite Edwardstone has proven tactically versatile so far and will be happy enough to be with restraint if needed, the more I look at the race the more I think this could be set up perfectly for him. He may well drift to a backable price on the day but for the moment I’d rather side with the mare RIVIERE D’ETEL. She has made the running multiple times this season but I’m hoping she can tuck in and track the leaders and make a late challenge. The strong pace should help her to settle better and she looked unlucky not to beat Blue Lord in the Irish Arkle last time, which is usually a good pointer for this race. With some firms paying 4 places it’s tough to see her not hitting the frame here.

RIVIERE D’ETEL 9/2

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase

I always like to focus on those with some course form to their name when looking at the Ultima, unfortunately that didn’t lead me to Vintage Clouds last year when he stuck two fingers up at the age stats boys winning at a massive 28/1. It would be foolish to write him off following up this year after an encouraging run, albeit in a veterans chase, in his first run following wind surgery.

Frodon is obviously a fascinating contender off top weight, he has won over course and distance from this mark previously and it was only 3 starts back we saw him beating Galvin who is currently co-favourite for the Gold Cup. The two runs in the interim do temper enthusiasm somewhat (beaten a combined 42 lengths) but it would not be a shock for him to give it a good go from the front, a tactic which has been seen to good effect in this contest before.

One that I like is FLOUEUR  for Gordon Elliot, despite Irish trainers poor record in this in recent years. This will probably be a watch from behind the sofa job, as he’s open to shuddering mistake on occasions, but his raw ability should have him involved at the finish. He was a good third to what we know now as a freak in Galopin Des Champs in the Martin Pipe last year. Jordon Gainford claims a useful 3lb off his back and was on board when the selection won a competitive beginners chase at Fairyhouse earlier in the season. He since ran well when third to Death Duty when a mistake at the last cost him his chance.

From the home challenge, TEA CLIPPER looks to have a good chance for a team that are absolutely flying at the moment in Tom Lacey and Stan Sheppard. Similar to the previous selection in that he finished a good third in a big handicap hurdle at the festival last year at a big price, and was impressive when landing a listed race on chase debut. He’s been racing in graded races since but this switch back to handicap company, along with wind surgery and first time cheek pieces point me to thinking this has been the plan for a while. 

Given the amount of firms offering 7 places each way I don’t think there’s any shame in playing 3 in the race, my last dart will be BEN DUNDEE who was second to School Boy Hours in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has some solid course form too, third behind A Plus Yard two years ago and 5th in the plate last year - that’s enough to make him a bet for me.

FLOUEUR 10/1

TEA CLIPPER 16/1

BEN DUNDEE 18/1

15:30 - Champion Hurdle

Honeysuckle is obviously hard to oppose, she’s won all of her 14 starts including this contest last year. That being said, 8/13 isn’t exactly a working mans price and I’ll be playing in the without favourite market. Appreciate It heads that market but given the only reason he’s ended up in the race due to an injury earlier in the season (chasing was the plan), he looks worth taking on too. ADAGIO has Cheltenham form figures of 2122 the most recent of which was a huge effort in the Greatwood off top weight, carrying 11st 12lb in a handicap of that quality at the age of four was very impressive. David Pipe’s charge was pushed out in the market after being beaten by Goshen last time out, but that horse is a top performer when he gets the ideal conditions he did that day at Wincanton. The first time cheekpieces were a bit of a surprise but at 8/1 in the W/O Honeysuckle market and 20/1+ in the outright, he looks a very solid each-way bet in both of those.

ADAGIO 20/1 (+ W/O HONEYSUCKLE 8/1)

16:10 - Mares’ Hurdle

This is another race which looks to have stacks of pace in it, Heaven Help Us, Western Victory and Stormy Ireland are all likely to force the early pace and that could set it up for something ridden with more restraint. That is obviously a positive for current favourite Tellmesomethinggirl, who has clearly been brought along steadily with this race in mind all season - but at 11/4 I don’t think there’s enough juice in the price.

On a line through Lunar Display from earlier in the season I’m not sure MRS MILNER should be 3 times the price of QUEENSBROOK. Mrs Milner gave Joseph O’Brien’s mare 4lb and a beating when staying on strongly over this trip to score in a listed race on seasonal debut, while Elliots mare was beaten off levels by her earlier in the year. Queensbrook is much less exposed, she's clearly improved since based on RPR’s and has a good chance of reversing form with Burning Victory based on connections comments in recent weeks, so I’ll still have gordon Elliots onside in the race too. 

However, I find it difficult to shake the memory of Mrs Milner storming up the hill in the Pertemps last season, she was disappointing last time but that was against the boys and she’s been freshened up since. The yard are in good form and she offers each way value against those at the front of the market with many firms offering extra places, so she’ll be my main play in the race.

QUEENSBROOK 9/2

MRS MILNER 12/1

16:50 - Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Gaelic Warrior has been the biggest talking horse in the festival build up by some way. His connections were seemingly shocked when the British handicapper gave him a mark of 129, expecting something around 10lbs higher. His form in France has worked out particularly well, he was 3rd on his final start, the two that finished in front of him have both won graded races since and the fourth completed a hat-trick since including a Grade 1. However well handicapped he may be, this is a 24 runner handicap and he is 9/4 so the sensible move is probably to take something each-way against him with many firms paying 6 places.

HMS SEAHORSE started out life on the flat with Aidan O’Brien and was a beaten favourite on 4 of his 5 starts but he has been a much more reliable performer since switching to obstacles with Paul Nolan. He finished third (albeit beaten 15 lengths) on seasonal debut at 40/1 behind Vauban and Pied Piper who are both near the head of the head of the market for the Triumph hurdle later in the week. He has progressed with every start since, was a good second to The Tide Turns at Punchestown and then justified favouritism last time despite racing on the worst part of the track. I make him a very nice each-way bet on handicap debut. 

The aforementioned THE TIDE TURNS also looks to have solid claims and can be backed each-way with the extra places on offer. He was a good 4th in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle and filled the same position again under tender handling behind Teahupoo who is third down the list in the Champion Hurdle betting. That run suggested they had this contest in mind and the British handicapper may have been lenient with a mark of 137.

HMS SEAHORSE 14/1

THE TIDE TURNS 6/1

17:30 - National Hunt Chase

I’m going to keep this fairly short for a couple of reasons: 1) I have had one horse in mind for this for a while 2) I’m sat in the pub writing this and I just want to close my laptop and have another pint. RUN WILD FRED was a convincing winner of the Troytown at Navan in November and I think he should take some pegging back on the front end. I have stamina doubts about his main market rival Stattler and I think Gordon Elliot’s charge will put his experience to good use here.

RUN WILD FRED 5/2