Cheltenham Festival 2022 - Day 4


1:30 Triumph Hurdle

VAUBAN blew me away with his performance at Leopardstown in the Spring Juvenile hurdle, he had Fil Dor three lengths behind in 2nd that day and with the ground drying back out he can confirm that form. The fact he was able to finish off his race so well despite racing keenly in the early stages was really taking, with the time figure boys raving about the quality of that race I think he is the one to side with. Willie Mullins hasn’t beaten around the bush when talking about this horse and he thinks he will go on to much better things than this race.

VAUBAN 7/4


2:10 County Handicap Hurdle

Dan Skelton has a good record in this race and I think they have another good chance in the shape of WEST CORK. He won the Greatwood here over course and distance back in November, a race which has worked out incredibly well with many of the runners in behind running well this week. The fourth home Camprond ran well when filling that position again in the Coral Cup on Wednesday, the 5th won a Grade 3 handicap on his next start, the 6th won the Betfair Hurdle and ran very well in the Champion hurdle and finally the 7th Maries Rock won the Mares Hurdle. Fair to say the form looks solid then. His Ascot run was dissapointing but he suffered an overreach which certainly excuses that performance. Kept fresh since will be just what he wants, having won that Greatwood off a 631 day absence.

Given the size of the field and place terms on offer I while play another two in the race. JESSE EVANS was actually sent off favourite for the aforementioned Greatwood, but could only manage to finish 9th. If he can bounce back to the form of his fourth in the Galway Hurdle then he could run on into a place at 25/1. Finally, MY MATE MOZZIE may seem a left field selection given he was beaten 53 lengths last time out, but that was in a Grade 1 behind Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life. He was given an easy time once beaten and prior to that he was only beaten a short head in a grade one himself. Graded form is always worth keeping an eye out in handicaps and Gavin Cromwell has been in good form, including landing the Stayers with Flooring Porter.

WEST CORK 10/1

JESSE EVANS 25/1

MY MATE MOZZIE 20/1



3:30 Gold Cup

A Plus Tard was carrying my money when getting done by Minella Indo in this last year and I have some reservations about how he saw that race out last year. He is a year older now and may stay better this year but I think there are stronger stayers in this. GALVIN is one of them, he beat A Plus Tard a short head at Leopardstown in the Savills Chase and I think the extra two furlongs could widen the gap between the two. I’m shocked that you can get 4/1 this morning and will happily take the scumbag option of backing him each-way with 4 places available.

At a bigger price TORNADO FLYER has a different profile, but at 12/1 I think the King George winner is worth having onside here. He caused an upset when winning at 28/1 at Kempton but that was only his second attempt at 3 miles and he clearly relished it. Willie Mullins’ runner has to prove himself over this longer trip but I think he’s worth chancing, I can see him running on late into the places and who knows maybe he can pass the lot of them.

GALVIN 4/1

TORNADO FLYER 12/1


16:50 Mares Chase

The front two in the market are likely to prove popular after both running well at the festival last year but ZAMBELLA was in the process of running a big race in this when falling three out in last year’s renewal. She looks to have stepped forwards again this year and her form figures over 2m4f read 12F111. She has won by big distances this year and I think she may run better than her odds of 12/1 suggest, I’ll back her each-way.

ZAMBELLA 12/1


17:30 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Hollow Games has the typical graded form profile for this race and I can see why the money has piled in for him this morning. He may well prove too good for this lot but at the current prices I prefer LANGER DAN. He finished second in this last year behind a certain Galopin Des Champs, subsequent form has shown beating that rival off 142 was a nearly impossible task. Dan Skelton’s runner has only had once outing since, a prep run a Taunton for which he was remarkably dropped 3lb. That means he’s only 2lb higher than last year and I find it very difficult to see him not hitting the frame with firms paying 6 places.

At a bigger price I also think COBBLERS DREAM has a chance of going well. He is two from two in handicaps including turning what is normally a competitive handicap hurdle in the Lanzarote into a bit of a procession. He may fly under the radar being from a smaller yard and it worth chancing each-way against the strong Irish challengers.

LANGER DAN 6/1

COBBLERS DREAM 14/1


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day One

Image
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle We have become accustomed to seeing a short-priced Willie Mullins-trained runner in the curtain raiser in recent times. Still, the market is much more open this year as a result of Ballyburn switching to the Ballymore instead (can't keep up with the changes of sponsors for that race). That being said, two of Mullins' runners are battling for favoritism as I write this.  Tullyhill  is a frustrating one for me, I have a useless ante-post slip for the Ballymore, but he has progressed well with each run this season and runs much better over this 2-mile trip than when tried at longer trips previously. I would still have major concerns regarding his jumping when he faces this better-class opposition, though. He got a freebie on the front end last time out and would be hugely surprised if the others allow him a soft lead in this, I'm not sure his jumping will hold up if he is taken out of his comfort zone. His engine may be good enough to get away...
Read more

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day Two

Image
  14:50 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Sa Majeste  has been all the rage in this in the build up to the festival and it's easy to see why punters would latch on to him,  a completely unexposed hurdler having had just two starts for Willie Mullins. The first of those starts he disappointed at 13/8 in April 2023, but last time out he was impressive when beating Noble Yeats over 2m4f at Christmas. However, that wouldn't be the grand national winner's optimum trip and I'm wary of backing Sa Majeste on the basis of that run alone. I really fancied Doddiethegreat  to run a huge race in this when I first looked but the form of the Henderson stable is certainly tempering my enthusiasm, with 5 of his 6 runners being pulled up on day one. That being said, everything is price related and he drifts enough (would want 12/1+) then I will end up backing him. There is certainly no worries regarding Henry De Bromhead's stable form and BALLYADAM  looks to be a solid option with almo...
Read more

Cheltenhan Festival 2024 - Day Three

Image
  14:10 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle GABBY'S CROSS   has caught the eye the last twice, running on well late after trouble in running to finish 2nd and he has clearly been held back to protect his mark for this. His Irish mark is 127 and although the UK handicapper has given him 133 here, that still looks like a very favorable mark based on his chase form (rated 143 at the start of the season). He is proven on all types of ground and Darragh O'Keeffe rides well around Cheltenham finishing in the first 4 in 35% of his rides here and +£13 to £1 level stakes. GABBYS CROSS 11/1 - 1 Point Each-Way 14:50 - Ryanair Chase I think there is an outstanding bet in here at the time of writing, not an imaginative selection but you can get 9/2 with 4 places each way on ENOVOI ALLEN  and I think that has to be taken. He won this last year and ran to the same RPR when 2nd to Gerri Colombe over a 3-mile trip where he was just outstayed. Back down to 2m4f at Cheltenham where he is 3-5, I fin...
Read more