Cheltenham Festival 2023 - Day 4

 

14:10 County Handicap Hurdle

The Skeltons have a decent record in this in recent years and Pembroke was very much on my shortlist, a progressive novice who will certainly benefit from the drop back in trip. Unfortunately, his price has collapsed this evening, so I won't be putting him up as a bet on here but if he drifts I may get involved.   

GIN COCO is another lightly raced sort who looks to have a huge shout here and he's still available at a double figure price. He was a beaten favourite last time out but travelled very powerfully into the race finishing second behind I Like To Move It looks even better now, the winner is now rated 15lb higher after landing the Kingwell in spectacular fashion subsequently. Gin Coco is only 4lb higher and given this is only his 7th start over hurdles theres plenty of scope for improvement.

MILKWOOD broke my heart in this race 2 years ago, he was my biggest bet of the festival that year and I'd backed him at prices from 40/1 down to 25/1, the jockey went for home too soon on him that day and after leading jumping the last he got run down late on. He went on to win the Scottish champion hurdle off 142 and then finish an unlucky 2nd off 147 in the Galway hurdle on his next two starts. He hasn't had his ideal conditions for a long time now which has helped his mark fall to 141, now back in a strongly run race over 2m1f with a big field there's every chance he could bounce back to form. (**disclaimer this may be heart ruling head**)

One at a huge price who interests me is LUTTRELL LAD who at the time of writing is available at 100/1. I was disapointed to see him pulled up on debut for Tom Lacey last time out given his good record with stable switchers, however it later became apparent that his saddle slipped which is a valid excuse. Prior to that he had been running on the flat without much success, however when you look back to his hurdles form there is a lot to like. He has only run 6 times over hurdles with form figures of 12220P and he was found to be lame after the unplaced effort. Included in those efforts was a respectable 2nd behind Camprond in a grade 2 novice hurdle and given he has had excuses on both handicap starts I think it's hard to rule him out completely in this. He also has some decent bumper form - 4th in the Aintree bumper behind Knappers Hill. I think a race of this nature could suit and Harry Cobden is a notable booking (never ridden for the yard before).

GIN COCO - 10/1

MILKWOOD - 40/1

LUTTRELL LAD - 125/1

15:30 Cheltenham Gold Cup

This looks a fascinating renewal of the Gold Cup with a mix of classy types and dour stayers. Galopin Des Champs and A Plus Tard certainly fit into the former category and I think its very likely they will be the ones fighting out the finish. Theres some stamina doubts about the former whereas the latter has to bounce back from being pulled up in the Betfair Chase last time out - which is very feasible given the trainers resurgance in the last couple of days. With extra places available I'll play NOBLE YEATS each-way to small stakes, with my confidence dented somehwhat by the trainers horses running below par so far this week. He won last years grand national and seems different to recent winners of that race in that he has continued to improve subsequently. Emmet Mullins charge ran a huge race when landing a Grade 2 at Aintree in December with a couple of these in behind, on his next start that form was reversed in the Cotswold chase but he was noted staying on well late. That wouldn't have been the target and it is interesting to see cheekpieces go back on for the first time since winning the national.

NOBLE YEATS - 14/1

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Would be lovely to sign off the festival with a winner and i think SPIRIT OF LEGEND could be the one to do it at a big price. He dissapointed on the face of it last time at Fairyhouse but nothing go into the race from off the pace and he wasn't given a hard time in the closing stages, perhaps with this race in mind (yard were also having a quiet spell). His run when second to Green Glory at Leopardstown reads well and with the stable's runners flying this week he looks overpriced at 25/1.

I'll also have a few quid saver on MIGHT I for Harry Fry and Lorcan Murtagh. He was only narrowly touched off a neck over 2m1f here at the end of January. He went into my tracker following the Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m4f at Aintree where he ran very well to finish 2nd to Three Stripe Life, this will be his first run over the trip since then which could bring out further improvement. The fact his jockey knows him well will also be a help, as that isn't always the case in this race.

SPIRIT OF LEGEND - 25/1

MIGHT I - 10/1