Saturday 1st April 2023

 

14:25 Doncaster

It's nice to see a full field for this after a disappointing turnout of only 8 runners last season. Last years winner Arthurs's Realm bids to repeat his success off a mark off a 9lb higher mark (90). Given he ran a blinder over course and distance to finish 3rd behind Atrium (a fancied runner in the Lincoln) off a mark of 90, this mark still seems realistic. His draw in 22 is of some concern however,  I don't typically like backing horses drawn on the wing in big fields and there is some suggestion that low stalls could be favoured here.

Isla Kai is drawn on the other wing in stall 1 and is a reliable front runner which means that DIRTYOLDTOWN should get a nice tow into the race fron the stall next door. Grant Tuer's charge was far from consistent last season with form figures of 206020, often following a good run with a terrible run on the face of it, although I think he had excuses on a couple of occasions. One of those second place finishes came over seven furlongs here at Doncaster back in September when only denied by a head. The godolphin winner has won a decent mile handicap in Meydan since and the third placed horse ran well at Haydock on his next start, and the 4th won a Class 2 handicap on the all-weather since. The son of No Nay Never disappointed at Ayr next time but was hampered mid race. His sole win came on soft ground as a two year-old, and both of his second place finishes last year came on ground on the easy side of good. The first time blinkers could eek out more and he looks worth an each-way bet here. 

DIRTYOLDTOWN 10/1 - 1 Point Each-Way (firms paying six places)

15:35 Doncaster

This is the first big race of the flat season and it's going to be difficult to whittle down the shortlist without all the possible information available, a vital part of which will be provided by how the Spring Mile on the card plays out. There is some limited evidence which suggests being drawn low could be advantageous in soft conditions as mentioned above, and there looks to be some pace low in this but the 2:25 race will provide a more solid guide.

William Haggas holds a typically strong hand in this and Al Mubir is favourite at the time of writing at around 7/2, but I prefer his second string Montassib at the prices. He was a bit of a frustrating horse last season, running well in a number of big fields handicaps including when sent off favourite for the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot - finishing 5th beaten just over a length despite meeting trouble in running. On his final start last year he finished a good 2nd to Wanees over a mile at Haydock when he was probably caught a bit further back than ideal. He is now 6lb better off with that rival for 3/4 length deficit. I backed him earlier in the week but my confidence has been tempered somewhat by the draw so i won't be putting him up on here, but wanted to highlight his strong chance.

MIGRATION is at the top of the racecard here off a rating of 107 but does have valuable apprentice Benoit De La Sayette who claims 3lb off his back. David Menuisier's charge ran a career best in the Spring Cup last year, that was a straight mile race and he went there following a long absence - exactly the case here. That run off 106 looks particularly good in hindsight with the winner Modern News winning in listed company subsequently and now rated 6lb higher. Migration only finished 8th in the Balmoral handicap at Ascot in October next time, however watching the race back that was a massive effort. He was drawn highest of all and it took a long time for his group to join the farside, even once he did William Buick found himself tight for space and weaving around a number of rivals with a sharp switch to the far rail, he stayed on powerfully and did well to only be beaten just over five lengths in the end. That was off 109 so despite topweight I think he has a good shout here, he is well proven on soft ground and his draw in 12 should give his talented claimer options.

BOPEDRO has been a bit of a cliff horse for me but I do think he has a decent each-way chance in these conditions. He ran a blinder on his final start last season over what is probably an inadequate seven furlong trip when 2nd to Totally Charming, who ran well last weekend when sent off favourite for the Irish Lincoln off an 8lb higher mark. The straight mile will suit his running style and with extra places available I can see him running well at around 20/1. I will be having a slightly smaller bet due to aforementioned concerns about the draw.

MIGRATION 16/1 - 1 Point Each-Way (use firms paying 6 places)

BOPEDRO 20/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way (use firms paying 6 places)

15:15 Kempton

ACED IT stands out as remaining well treated off a mark 87, he may be seven years of age but his performances on the track are better than ever and he is still relatively unexposed over this two mile trip. It was a particularly strong run on his penultimate start in a conditions race over course and distance when he was up against it at the weights. He managed to dead heat for 4th despite meeting trouble and he was still closing at the line. Only a neck behind was Solent Getaway racing off levels who is rated 94 and the horse he deadheated with, Earlofthecotswolds,  is rated 101 and went on to win a conditions race at Wolverhampton on his next start.

More recently he went one better when 3rd over course and distance behind Aztec Empire who reopposes today. I think Aced It ran much better than his finishing position suggests on that occasion, it looked as though Jack Mitchell realised they weren't going quick enough up front and he was caught towards the rear. He subsequently made a bold move around the outside of the field around six furlongs out so it was a surprise to see him travelling so strongly only a furlong out, he made some late ground but that mid race move likely took its toll late on. The winner is younger and clearly progressive so it wouldn't be a shock if he upheld the form, but the price difference between the two given the 8lb pull in the weights seems excessive.

ACED IT 7/1 - 1 Point Win