Saturday 27th May 2023

 



13:35 York

QUICK CHANGE has been well supported in the market this morning but I think he remains a solid bet at 10/1 with 5 places widely available. This is clearly a wide open handicap but we know a lot about most of these, whereas the selection is still very much open to improvement. He shaped as though in need of the run last time out but it is his win last season which sticks out to me. 

The son of New Approach made all that day and the horses he had in behind have proven the substance of the form, Amanzoe was second off 72 that day and has run up a sequence of wins since to acheive his current rating of 98. The third placed horse, who was beaten over 9 lengths, has also won twice since.Quick Change has proven he is flexible with regards to riding tactics and, although he may well benefit from a step back up to a mile in the future, this should be run at a strong gallop to suit him.

QUICK CHANGE 10/1 -1.5 Points Each Way


16:20 Goodwood

It's not often a Haggas horse is overlooked in the market but I think that is the case with TAMILLA here. She won twice last term and signed off with a good performance at Haydock when beaten favourite, with the extra two furlongs potentially not suiting. She also raced keenly that day so she did well to stick on for a good 4th, especially given the race seemed to favour those on the front end of the pace. The 5th from that contest returned to action with an unlucky 2nd and then won his next start of a mark of 90 at newmarket.

Given Haggas' excellent record with those returning from a break the lack of a recent run is of no concern and given her unexposed profile, I'd much rather take the 10/1 about her than the 2/1 on the favourite currently.


TAMILLA 10/1 - 1 Point Each-Way



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day One

Image
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle We have become accustomed to seeing a short-priced Willie Mullins-trained runner in the curtain raiser in recent times. Still, the market is much more open this year as a result of Ballyburn switching to the Ballymore instead (can't keep up with the changes of sponsors for that race). That being said, two of Mullins' runners are battling for favoritism as I write this.  Tullyhill  is a frustrating one for me, I have a useless ante-post slip for the Ballymore, but he has progressed well with each run this season and runs much better over this 2-mile trip than when tried at longer trips previously. I would still have major concerns regarding his jumping when he faces this better-class opposition, though. He got a freebie on the front end last time out and would be hugely surprised if the others allow him a soft lead in this, I'm not sure his jumping will hold up if he is taken out of his comfort zone. His engine may be good enough to get away...
Read more

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day Two

Image
  14:50 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Sa Majeste  has been all the rage in this in the build up to the festival and it's easy to see why punters would latch on to him,  a completely unexposed hurdler having had just two starts for Willie Mullins. The first of those starts he disappointed at 13/8 in April 2023, but last time out he was impressive when beating Noble Yeats over 2m4f at Christmas. However, that wouldn't be the grand national winner's optimum trip and I'm wary of backing Sa Majeste on the basis of that run alone. I really fancied Doddiethegreat  to run a huge race in this when I first looked but the form of the Henderson stable is certainly tempering my enthusiasm, with 5 of his 6 runners being pulled up on day one. That being said, everything is price related and he drifts enough (would want 12/1+) then I will end up backing him. There is certainly no worries regarding Henry De Bromhead's stable form and BALLYADAM  looks to be a solid option with almo...
Read more

Cheltenhan Festival 2024 - Day Three

Image
  14:10 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle GABBY'S CROSS   has caught the eye the last twice, running on well late after trouble in running to finish 2nd and he has clearly been held back to protect his mark for this. His Irish mark is 127 and although the UK handicapper has given him 133 here, that still looks like a very favorable mark based on his chase form (rated 143 at the start of the season). He is proven on all types of ground and Darragh O'Keeffe rides well around Cheltenham finishing in the first 4 in 35% of his rides here and +£13 to £1 level stakes. GABBYS CROSS 11/1 - 1 Point Each-Way 14:50 - Ryanair Chase I think there is an outstanding bet in here at the time of writing, not an imaginative selection but you can get 9/2 with 4 places each way on ENOVOI ALLEN  and I think that has to be taken. He won this last year and ran to the same RPR when 2nd to Gerri Colombe over a 3-mile trip where he was just outstayed. Back down to 2m4f at Cheltenham where he is 3-5, I fin...
Read more