Royal Ascot 2023 - Day 4

 


15:05 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (3yo)

Little Big Bear is the obvious one here but the price is certainly short enough at this point. I'm going to take him on with two fillies at big prices, the first of which is OCEAN QUEST for the Harrington team. She was impressive when beating Aesop's Fables on her seasonal return and her subsequent 2nd to The Antarctic in a Group 3 is certainly worth of an upgrade. She raced on the wrong side of the track and I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude she was the best horse in the race that day. The third from that contest has gone on to win a Group 3 since and the way Ocean Quest finished her race last time out, this course and distance should suit.

At an even bigger price I think QUEEN ME has some claims of potentially hitting the frame. Similar to the favourite in that she ran in the Guineas looking like a non-stayer and now reverts to sprinting. She put up some smart efforts last year including a very good 2nd in the Lowther at York beaten a neck, when she probably wasn't close enough to the pace. She had the subsequent 1st and 3rd in the 1000 Guineas behind her that day, as well as the very smart Dramatised. Next time at Ayr she was probably too close to the pace when pounced on by a couple of closers. The yard opened the week with a 33/1 winner and I think they have a chance with one at a big price again here.


OCEAN QUEST 20/1 - 1 Point Each-Way

QUEEN ME 50/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way


15:40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (3yo+)

MAKSUD's price is tumbling as I type but I make him a bet at 8/1 or bigger with 5 places widely available. His career best effort came over this trip off this mark at Goodwood last year when 2nd and although the formbook has the ground down as good that day, Timeform had it as good to firm so the drying conditions are certainly no worry. The form of that goodwood contest worked out well, the Godolphin winner finished 2nd in a Group 2 next time and the 3rd & 4th have both won twice since. Only 7th of 9 on reappearance at Chester is a disappointing return on the face of it, but missing the kick gave him no chance as is often the case at that track. This will likely have been the aim and his draw in 15 looks ideal.

The price of this selection went from 14/1 to 8/1 as I was typing and has since shortened further, I would wait and back him closer to the off as I expect him to drift back out.

MAKSUD 8/1  - 2 Points each-Way


17:00 Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (3yo)

Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Jackie Oh here and it's easy to see why after her creditable effort in the Irish 1000 Guineas, but I like the Aidan O'Brien's other runner UNLESS. The latter ran in big fields the last twice so the hustle and bustle of the Sandringham should pose no problem. The daughter of US superstar Justify travelled strongly through her race at Naas last time out and won a shade cosily, that form has been franked with both the 2nd and 3rd winning since.  I think the market has overeacted to the jockey bookings here and I'm happy to take the 20/1 with 6 places each-way.

UNLESS 20/1 - 1 Point Each-Way

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