Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day One

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

We have become accustomed to seeing a short-priced Willie Mullins-trained runner in the curtain raiser in recent times. Still, the market is much more open this year as a result of Ballyburn switching to the Ballymore instead (can't keep up with the changes of sponsors for that race). That being said, two of Mullins' runners are battling for favoritism as I write this. 

Tullyhill is a frustrating one for me, I have a useless ante-post slip for the Ballymore, but he has progressed well with each run this season and runs much better over this 2-mile trip than when tried at longer trips previously. I would still have major concerns regarding his jumping when he faces this better-class opposition, though. He got a freebie on the front end last time out and would be hugely surprised if the others allow him a soft lead in this, I'm not sure his jumping will hold up if he is taken out of his comfort zone. His engine may be good enough to get away with it, but at 3/1 he doesn't look great value to find out.

Stablemate Mystical Power will attract a lot of attention being a daughter of the great Annie Power, but as a result, doesn't look to offer much value at the current prices. She has been impressive in both runs over hurdles, but they were small fields and it definitely looks a case of more style than substance. On the other hand, SLADE STEEL has the most solid-looking form on offer. The only blot on his copybook this season was when second to the aforementioned Ballyburn in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month, given that horse is many punter's banker of the week there was no disgrace in finishing 7 lengths second to him. Before that Slade Steel had won a Grade 2 at Navan over 2m4f, with multiple horses in behind him placing in graded company subsequently, his form looks to have a much more solid look to it. In time he may be seen to better effect over longer trips, but given ground looks on the softer side, and the fact that the Supreme is normally a thorough test of stamina - I think he is an excellent each-way bet with 4 places on offer.

I would also heed caution regarding Firefox's beating of Ballyburn earlier this season, that form should not be taken literally. Firefox sped away from an unfit Ballyburn while he had the benefit of a run, the two races Gordon Elliot's charge has won this year have been run at a bit of a dawdle - so this more thorough stamina test is a big unknown.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, MISTERGIF reminds me of the yards Diverge who finished third in last year's renewal. He was also a French recruit who came here after hacking up in a maiden hurdle (at Punchestown as opposed to Limerick for Mistergif) and came here as an unknown quantity. Mistergif impressed me with his jumping last time out and connections are clearly excited by his potential. That run also lacks a bit of substance to the form but his price more than accounts for that given he is 14/1, with softer ground also likely to suit.

SLADE STEEL 11/2 - 1 Point Each-Way

MISTERGIF 14/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

14:10 - Arkle Novices' Chase

The betting picture changed rather dramatically in this race following the injury to Marine Nationale, leaving us with another open and tricky-looking race. GAELLIC WARRIOR is a difficult horse to work out in this race,  it is no secret that he is a better horse going right-handed, but he does have the standout piece of form here which could mean he is good enough despite having to go left. 

His run when comprehensively beating the reopposing Il Etait Temps at Limerick at Christmas was outstanding, winning by over 5 lengths eased down. More recently he was hugely disappointing at Leopardstown last month, well beaten before unseating his rider in a match with Fact To File, who is a warm order for the Brown Advisory on Wednesday. I will have a saver on him given that, despite his tendency to jump right, he has run two very good races at Cheltenham in the last couple of years - finishing 2nd in the Boodles and Ballymore. 

Outside of the Irish Battalion, MASTER CHEWY could be worth a small each-way bet for the British contingent. I certainly don't think he should be over twice the price of JPR One, especially as I'm more than happy to put a line through his run last time out at Lingfield behind both JPR One and Mateta. He was severely hampered that day and had little chance of getting back into the race. I'm much more inclined to judge him on his earlier Grade 2 win at Kempton over Christmas when beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Nickleback comfortably. On BHA ratings he has nothing to find with JPR One, he is still unexposed over fences and I think he's worth a few quid each-way.

GAELLIC WARRIOR 11/4 - 1 Point Win

MASTER CHEWY 25/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase

This is one of the few races where it has paid to side with the British-trained runners, but the Irish do look to hold a particularly strong hand in this year's renewal. JP McManus purchased current favourite Meetingofthewaters last week and it's easy to see the case for him. Impressive in a very competitive listed handicap chase at Leopardstown and still very much unexposed - it would be no surprise to see him prove better than this 147 rating, but he looks short enough at the front of the market.

I think the handicapper was pretty generous in dropping TRELAWNE 1lb for a very solid run in an Exeter novice chase last time out and he can take advantage of the step up in trip here. His form from earlier in the season is excellent, running a belter here at Cheltenham behind Ginny's Destiny and Grey Dawning who are both now rated 155 and 153 respectively. As a winner over 3 miles over hurdles on soft ground, there is a strong suspicion this step up in trip could bring out further improvement and the booking of Harry Cobden certainly enhances his claims.

An Irish contender who I do want onside is THE GOFFER, who was a very creditable 4th in this last year after possibly kicking for home a tad soon. Time has told us that probably didn’t matter though as Corach Rambler and Fastorslow have proven to be outstanding chasers and both run in the Gold Cup later in the week. Connections have done well to protect his mark and he actually comes here off 2lb lower than last season, having run better than his for figures of 858 suggest this season.

LORD DU MESNIL is one at a huge price who could run into the places if this gets attritional, especially with many firms paying 6 places. He is a bit of a plodder (in the nicest way), but given the weather forecast this could turn into a race with only a small number of finishers and he is often one of the few finishers in those more grueling races.

TRELAWNE 15/2 - 1 Point Each-Way

THE GOFFER 13/2 - 1 Point Each Way

LORD DU MESNIL 40/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

15:30 - Champion Hurdle

No bet for me in here, it’s tough to oppose STATE MAN but 1/3 isn’t a price I’d be a backer at. This is one to sit back and enjoy without any financial interest.

16:10 - Mares Hurdle

Lossiemouth is the cornerstone of quite a few punters multiples this week, with her class being emphasised by the fact connections were contemplating running her in the Champion Hurdle (although I never thought they would follow through with that idea). She will be tough to beat if running to the level of her recent run, but there are enough question marks for me to pass over her at odds on.

As impressive as she has been this season, Willie Mullins mare has been doing all her winning over the shorter trips, so she does have to prove her stamina up to 2m4f for the first time - especially on potentially testing ground. One who will have no worries about the ground or trip is LOVE ENVOI, who ran an absolute belter in this race last year when only collared late by the sensational Honeysuckle. Harry Fry’s mare was clearly outpaced by the classy Lossiemouth here at Cheltenham last time lit when beaten 9 lengths, but with the emphasis more on stamina here she may bridge the gap. I’ll be having a small bet each way for some interest here.

LOVE ENVOI 14/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

16:50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle

This is always a tough race to pick apart and one where all the extra places offered are very helpful. Martin Brassil has had an excellent record at Cheltenham in recent years and OSE PARTIR could have a good chance of enhancing that record. He has been beaten 29, 9 and 104 lengths on his last three starts which will be enough to put many punters off, but those efforts came in graded races and this is his first time in handicap company. The french flat recruit is better judged on his 2nd at Galway in October on debut for the yard, where he met trouble in running. This yard aren't one to bring a runner to Cheltenham just for the day out, so I'll have a small each-way on him at around 14/1.

OSE PARTIR 14/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way

17:30 - National Hunt Chase (Grade 2)

This is a no bet race for me, but if pushed for a selection I'd be with EMBASSY GARDENS over Corbetts Cross. The latter isn't a certain stayer for me and the former has been very impressive in both chase starts this season.