The best week in the racing calendar is here again and for all it’s a cracking day’s racing, these probably won’t be my strongest bets of the week. The 4-fold of Kopek Des Bordes, Majborough, Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill will be very popular with punters (pays 7/1+). But as usual most of my selections will be in the big handicaps on the card. Best of luck with your bets for day one.
13:20 - Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2m 1/2f
I was lucky enough to be at the Dublin Racing Festival last month to see Kopek Des Bordes absolutely demolish his opposition. I’m sitting on an ante-post position on him so it’s unlikely I’ll go in again (although the evens as I type is getting tempting). The worry for him would be if he handles the occasion, he was in and out of the parade ring very quickly at Leopardstown (presumably in an attempt to keep a lid on him) but he still won despite racing freely.
Workahead’s win at at Leopardstown over Christmas was franked when the seven length 2nd William Munny went on to win a listed Punchestown hurdle by 15 lengths eased down. Henry De Bromhead’s yard have started to get going just in time for Cheltenham like they usually do, so if I forced into a bet here it would probably be Workahead, but no one is forcing me so I’ll leave it alone in the hope the favourite lands the ante-post slip.
14:40 - Ultima Handicap Chase 3m1f
Given the graded races on day one are dominated by some short priced favourites, this is one of the better punting opportunities. A big race for the trends boys and while I wouldn’t follow trends blind, they definitely point towards a typical profile for this race. That’s a second season chaser, trained in the UK who’s improving up the handicap. One who fits the bill on that score is KATATE DORI for Sam Thomas, who was an emphatic winner at Kempton last time out. He’s probably unlucky not to be 4-4 over fences, he was caught a bit too far back on his penultimate run where some scruffy jumping let him down, but he fared best of those held up that day.
The only thing Sam Thomas’ charge lacks is Cheltenham form, a comment which doesn’t apply to KING TURGEON who won over 3m2f here (albeit on the new course). He was then only a short head behind KATATE DORI when third at Wincanton on his penultimate start, when he was attempting to give 20lb to that rival. He only has to give him 2lb now, so I have to have an each-way play on him.
THE SHORT GO would be a trendbuster given his Irish connections, but that’s not going to put me off a small play on him each-way. He was a solid 2nd to stablemate Senior Chief over course and distance in October off 126, an effort worthy of an upgrade given he fared best of those ridden patiently and an untidy jump two out cost him some momentum. A fall last time out in the Troytown isn’t the best prep, but he can still be competitive here off 132.
Others of note in the race are The Changing Man, who is another 2nd season chaser who fits the profile nicely and was probably done a favour by the handicapper only being raised 2lb for winning a Grade 2 by 24 lengths last time. All winners of the race this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles, which would be negative for Crebilly, but he has clearly been laid out for this after an excellent 2nd in the plate last year off 2lb higher.
KATATE DORI 8/1 - 1 Point Each-Way (use firms paying 6 places)
THE SHORT GO 12/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way (use firms paying 6 places)
KING TURGEON 25/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way (use firms paying 6 places)
16:40 - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
When studying handicaps my usual starting point is at the bottom weight and working my way up the racecard, always has been. But in recent years this race is one where it has paid to stick with the classier sorts near the top of the weights, with 6 of the last 8 winners coming from the top 12 on the racecard. There is also a particular 4-year-old hurdle at Naas which has provided 4 of the last 6 winners of this race, this year the winner of that race is not represented but the 2nd is in the shape of MURCIA. She looked very unlucky not to get her head in front there and although her jumping would be a slight worry but she comfortably won a 3yo listed hurdle in France before joining Willie Mullins and has been left on her mark of 136 by the British Handicapper.
My main play in the race will be Gavin Cromwell’s TOTAL LOOK. To say he was eye-catching last time out would be an understatement, there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll step forward again from that as it is clear that wasn’t their target. He was also unlucky not to win on the new course at Cheltenham on his penultimate start when he lost momentum at the last and stayed on again late. The re-opposing QUANTOCK HILLS will have a decent chance on these revised terms but my suspicion is that TOTAL LOOK will have improved past him in first time cheekpieces.
MURCIA 12/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way
TOTAL LOOK 8/1 - 1 Point Each-Way (use firms paying 6 places)
17:20 - National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase 3m6f
GERICAULT ROQUE has some cracking old handicap form including a 2nd in this race off 138 in 2022 to Coach Rambler and he’s only been seen 3 times since that day. Once over hurdles, then a 3rd in the Coral Gold Cup in November 2022 and most recently when a decent third off a 783 day absence at Warwick in January this year. That run suggested he retains plenty of his ability and he’s now down to a mark of 131. All of his best runs have come over 3m+ including a run over 3m5f so there’s no worry about stamina.
Olly Murphy’s RESPLENDENT GREY doesn’t have the stamina guarantee of the first named selection, but he has been staying on well late in some decent handicaps over shorter trips this year. He finished ahead of Springwell Bay over 3m here in November and his 2nd to Handstands at Sandown in December looks much better than it looked at the time, with that rival winning another Grade 2 and a Grade 1 subsequently. His jumping isn’t always the best, but I can see him staying on late for this in-form trainer-jockey combination.
GERICAULT ROQUE 9/1 - 0.5 Points Each-Way
RESPLENDENT GREY 9/1 - 1 Point Each-Way
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